Wow… Talk about an exciting week for cryptocurrencies and surprise plot twists! First we have the Parity wallet bug that ‘accidentally’ black-holed anywhere from $150-$280 million dollars worth of Ether (depending on who you ask). Ether prices took a decent sized hit pretty quickly but seems to be recovering just fine now. As a sidenote, Litecoin got a pretty healthy bump right after the news broke. I suspect from people dumping Ether needing a place to put their money and unsure about BTC.
Then, just a day later, SegWit2x gets called off! Who didn’t see that coming?
The one hour candles show there was a big sell off and now pricing is just kind of bouncing around (though trending down) on fairly low volume.
Undoubtedly there are those who are mad they aren’t getting their “hard fork dividend” or “free money” from the resultant two chains, but honestly… this is probably better for BTC anyway. That is, of course, assuming that the end-user visible problems SegWit2X was supposed to be addressing (high fees, long transaction times) get resolved in the relatively near future.
I am a hobbyist and a newbie and make no bones about either, so I could be 100% off here but– here is my prediction: Bitcoin price will continue to trend down for awhile as more and more of the recently invested decide to either do some profit taking or minimize their losses. At some point, we’ll find some support and will eventually go back up, though maybe not at the rate we’ve seen over the last six or seven weeks. I’m hoping I can identify that support and increase my position at the right time.
Of course, as the last couple of days with their back-to-back black swan events shows us, in this market, anything is possible.